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How Many Central City High Schools Have a Severe Dropout Problem, Where Are They Located, and Who Attends Them? Estimates Using the Common Core of Data Using data collected by the National Center for Education Statistics' Common Core of Data, the authors estimate the dropout rates in high schools located in the 35 largest central cities in the United States. By arriving at an indicator for "holding power"--or the proportion of students retained in a school between the 9th and 12th grades-their findings reveal that between 40% and 50% of the central city high schools in the sample (236 in 89/92, and 285 for 92/95) graduate less than half of their ninth grade class. This suggests that in the country's largest 35 central cities, the urban dropout problem may be concentrated in between 200 to 300 schools, with an additional 100 schools close to meeting this definition. According to this study, holding power is weakest in large schools with over 900 students, with minority student population of 90% or more; and has grown weaker in urban America during the first half of the 1990's. Other important findings from this study include: · Two thirds of the 200 or so large high schools that are attended almost entirely by minority students in the nation's 35 largest cities have weak or very weak holding power. Based on this research, the authors make the following policy recommendations: 1. Major inroads can be made in reducing the urban and minority dropout rate if between 200 to 300 schools located primarily in 20 to 25 cities are transformed from failing high schools into strong learning institutions. The National Dropout Data Collection System: Assessing Consistency This paper concludes that, despite decades of data collection, the federal government is still unable to provide answers to a fundamental question: how many students drop out in any given year and how many students complete high school? Completion and dropout rates can vary dramatically depending on the data source because: Currently, the federal government relies on three sources of data on high school dropouts and completers: the October supplement to the Current Population Survey (CPS) collected by the Bureau of the Census, the Common Core of Data (CCD) compiled by the National Center for Education Statistics, and data from the National Center for Education Statistic's Longitudinal Studies Program (NELS). Each yield different estimates of dropout and completion rate, due to differences in the target populations and the data collection methods. No matter how one measures dropout and completion rates, with present survey data, there is a great deal of sampling error associated with the estimates. Error is fairly large at the national level and very large at the state level (even after using three year averages). Large apparent differences are not statistically reliable. Therefore while most of the datasets point in a single direction, none of them can reliably give precise answers to basic questions about school dropouts and completers beyond broad "ballpark" answers. Certainly, none give the kind of detail that policy-maker need to track the impact of current reforms on high school completion rates. The author also found that underrepresentation of minority students in data sampling leads to large-scale bias in NELS and CCD and underestimates minority dropout levels. The author makes two specific recommendations to improve data collection on high school completion: Connecting Entrance and Departure: The Transition to Ninth Grade and High School Dropout This paper describes the landscape of dropping out in Philadelphia, using data from a study called the Philadelphia Education Longitudinal Study (PELS), which has followed a sample of 10% of the city's 1995-96 eighth grade public school students for the past four years. In Philadelphia, about half of first-time freshmen are not promoted to tenth grade. The data analyzed in this paper suggest that failing ninth grade contributes substantially to the probability that a student will eventually drop out, even controlling for demographic and family background characteristics, previous school performance, and pre-high school attitudes and ambitions. Other factors that increase dropout prospects are if students are older, male, have friends involved in anti-social behaviors, and were less academically engaged in school as eighth graders. The authors found that students who were more academically engaged in ninth grade, who thought their classes were more interesting and were bored less often were less likely to drop out. This suggests that competent teachers should be assigned to ninth grade who can make the classroom an exciting place to learn. Another factor in increasing prospects that a student will complete high school is his or her overall level of comfort in the school during this transition year, as well as the level of safety (s)he feels at school during ninth grade. The authors recommend that, given the importance of the ninth grade year in determining whether a student graduates from high school or not, students who are failing in eighth grade be singled out for special programs rather than sent to the neighborhood school. One ninth grade model that shows promise in curbing the dropout rate is the Talent Development High School. This program creates a physically separate space for ninth graders using a core curriculum of double dose English and mathematics and a strategy of introducing students to high school level work, while addressing their basic skills. Block schedules are implemented to allow students to stay with the same classmates all day long. Promotion rates for ninth graders in this program increased by 47% in one school, and 65% in another. In these programs, schools were cleaner, hallway chaos diminished and suspensions and expulsions dropped dramatically. The authors suggest that "tinkering around the edges" of the traditional high school will not make much difference. The dropout problem is too complex and the problems of traditional high school organization are too interlinked. Radical solutions are required, one of which should be a renewed look at creating schools where students remain for their entire K-12 experience. Essential Components of High School Dropout Prevention Reforms While current research indicates that a variety of different interventions may be used to reduce dropout rates, relatively little is known about models for changing entire high schools with adequate support services. Based on his team's work in Baltimore and Philadelphia, and selected other urban districts, McPartland describes both the base of knowledge and the problems in practice of changing an entire high school geared toward dropout prevention. He considers the range of interventions he and his team have implemented through the Talent Development Model. These fall into three broad categories: 1. organizational factors, 2. instructional factors (e.g. 9th grade curricula, common core curricula), and 3. professional development. 1. Organizational Factors: These changes sum up to restructuring the large size and differentiated staffing of the traditional high school into a set of much smaller, self-contained units that each occupy a particular space in the building and include an exclusive group of students and teachers under the direction of a dedicated and empowered local leadership. 2. Curriculum and Instructional Innovations: Authors recommend that the solution for poorly prepared students who enter ninth grade is not to shunt them into low-level courses, but to offer them extra time during the regular schedule in core academic courses, to offer carefully designed catch-up learning activities that are attractive to young adults, and to provide recovery chances outside of regular school hours to make up failed credits or weak skills. When these strategies are well implemented, student motivation to learn is strengthened, along with their chances to succeed in a core college preparatory curriculum. 3. Teacher Support Systems: The authors recommend that teachers and administrators be given sufficient planning time to have real input in the recommended reforms. The reform model needs to be owned by the school community, because, in the end, the strength of the implementation depends upon the energy and enthusiasm which local teachers and administrators bring to the task. The authors describe the difficulties in implementing the Talent Development High School Model in large high poverty high schools in urban districts, that include: Reform Context: Educators tend to emphasize reform in the elementary grades, and to focus on establishing select tracks for high achievers in high school, rather than for low achievers. District Concerns: These include a lack of support and resources, and difficulties in coordinating reform model requirements with personnel policies and union regulations. School Concerns: The principal must be deeply committed to the reform model. He or she must present a readiness to make serious changes and to personally help implement reforms. Unfortunately, in many high schools, educators are dubious about the possibilities of serious reforms, and teachers are not accustomed to working together. The authors conclude that the dropout problem is of such alarming proportions in many high poverty urban high schools that powerful comprehensive reforms are required to realistically produce significant improvements. They cite growing evidence that a comprehensive set of specific organizational, instructional and teacher support changes can save most of the current dropouts, and is cause for optimism about our ability to tackle this problem. Making Do With Less: Interpreting the Evidence from Recent Federal Evaluations of Dropout-Prevention Programs The key finding from the evaluation is that most broad intervention programs did not reduce dropping out by statistically significant amounts, but some programs did improve some outcomes. This confirms earlier work indicating that it is extremely difficult to identify risk factors (i.e., students who have been thought to have some "risk factors" often persist in school, while students who showed none often dropped out.) Although the author does not believe that the findings comprise a menu of program options for helping students at risk of dropping out, he does argue that they can be useful as guides to further program development and testing. Drawing on examples from the various sites, the author noted that effective programs operated in small settings and paid attention to students' needs inside and outside of the classroom. The professionals cared about the students, and recognized that all students need a measure of academic challenge, even those with undistinguished records, and that students respond if the learning is somehow connected to their personal experiences. The findings suggest that ongoing, school-based personalized attention from adults may conceivably make more of a difference in stemming dropout rates than broad intervention programs. Making School Completion Integral to School Purpose and Design This paper presents evidence from an eight-year longitudinal study of a reform initiative known as the Coalition Campus Schools Project (CCSP). CCSP was a collaboration of the New York City Board of Education, the United Federation of Teachers, and a consortium of foundations, whose primary purpose was to establish a model for the reform of large failing urban secondary schools. In many instances, the CCSP attempted to replace large schools with smaller, autonomous schools organized for teachers to know students well and provide them with an education focused on intellectual development. The authors found that on average, the Project schools serve a student population that is less well prepared and more economically stressed and of color than the New York City public schools on average. At the Project schools, 93% of the students are of color, 78% receive free and reduced price lunch and only 35.3% enter 9th grade reading at or above norms. In comparison, 84.2% of New York City high school students are of color, 44.2% receive free and reduced price lunch and 50% enter 9th grade reading at or above grade level. Despite these differences, students in CCSP schools: Compared with existing, large, comprehensive zoned and unrestructured (i.e. traditionally organized) high schools similar to those closed by the Board of Education, CCSP students also demonstrate strong results. The average four-year graduation rate of CCSP high schools is 52%, as compared with 34% at Manhattan Comprehensive High School. Graduates of Project schools are also much more likely to attend college (75%) than graduates of two comprehensive zoned high schools, for instance, Manhattan CHS (60%) and Bronx CHS (39%). Some of the common features of these schools that Ancess and Ort find positively affect students' school success include: Trends in High School Dropout Among White,
Black, and Hispanic Youth, 1972-1998 Based on estimates from the October Current Population Surveys (CPS) between 1972 and 1998, the authors have been able to provide a stronger picture of how socioeconomic and household characteristics are related to dropout figures: For More Information Respond to this press release with an e-mail to the editor HGSE News, Harvard Graduate School of Education
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