John Willett is interested in all things quantitative, particularly statistical methods for analyzing the timing and occurrence of events; methods for modeling change, learning, and development; and longitudinal research design. A new book by Willett and his colleague Judy Singer, titled Applied Longitudinal Data Analysis: Modeling Change and Event Occurrence, is an integrated presentation of statistical methods for the analysis of longitudinal data.

Willett was born and raised in northern England. He was educated at Oxford University, where he studied physics (specializing in quantum mechanics) in the 1960s. In the 1970s, he and his wife and daughter lived in Hong Kong, where he taught high-school physics and mathematics for almost a decade. During this time, he traveled widely before settling in the United States in 1980. At one time or another, in addition to being a teacher and a professor, he has been a professional musician and a television journalist. He is now a U.S. citizen and a grandfather.

Degrees

• Ph.D., Stanford University

• Applied Longitudinal Data Analysis: Modeling Change and Event Occurrence (with J. Singer) (2003)
• "Do Different Dimensions of Male High-School Students' Skills Predict Labor Market Success a Decade Later? Evidence from the NLSY," in Economics of Education Review (with R. Murnane, J. Braatz and Y. Duhaldeborde) (2001)
• "Do the Cognitive Skills of Dropouts Matter in the Labor Market?" in the Journal of Human Resources (with J. Tyler and R. Murnane) (2000)
• "Estimating the Labor Market Signaling Value of the GED," in the Quarterly Journal of Economics (with J. Tyler and R. Murnane) (2000)
• "How Important Are the Cognitive Skills of Teenagers in Predicting Subsequent Earnings?" in the Journal of Policy Analysis and Management (with R. Murnane, Y. Duhaldeborde and J. Tyler) (2000)
• "Second Chance Strategies for Female School Dropouts," in the Monthly Labor Review (with K. Boudett and R. Murnane) (2000)
• "What Are the High School Diploma and the GED Worth in the Labor Market? Evidence for Males from High School and Beyond?" in Review of Economics and Statistics (with R. Murnane and J. Tyler) (2000)
• "Do Male Dropouts Benefit From Obtaining a GED, Postsecondary Education, and Training?" in Evaluation Review (with R. Murnane and K. Boudett) (1999)
• "The Career Paths of Teachers: Implications for Teacher Supply and Methodological Lessons for Research," in Educational Researcher (with R. Murnane and J. Singer) (1998)
• "The Design and Analysis of Longitudinal Studies of Development and Psychopathology in Context: Statistical Models and Methodological Recommendations," in Development and Psychopathology (with J.D. Singer and N.C. Martin) (1998)
• "Does a GED Lead to More Training, Post-Secondary Education, and Military Service for School Dropouts?" in Industrial and Labor Relations Review (with R. Murnane and K. Boudett) (1997)
• "Measuring Change: What Individual Growth Modeling Buys You," in Change and Development: Issues of Theory, Method and Application (ed. by E. Amsel and K. Renninger) (1997)
• "Methodological Issues in the Design of Longitudinal Research: Principles and Recommendations for a Quantitative Study of Teachers' Careers," in Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis (with J. Singer) (1996)
• "The Contribution of Training and Subject-Matter Knowledge to Teaching Effectiveness: A Multilevel Analysis of Longitudinal Evidence from Belize," in Comparative Education Review (with J. Mullens and R. Murnane) (1996)
• "Do High-School Dropouts Benefit From Obtaining a GED?" in Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis (with R. Murnane and K. Boudett) (1995)
• "It's Deja Vu All Over Again: Using Multiple-Spell Discrete-Time Survival Analysis," in Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics (with J.D. Singer) (1995)
• "The Growing Importance of Cognitive Skills in Wage Determination," in Review of Economics and Statistics (with R.J. Murnane and F. Levy) (1995)
• "Using Covariance Structure Analysis to Detect Correlates and Predictors of Change," in Psychological Bulletin (with A.G. Sayer) (1994)
• "Investigating Onset, Cessation, Relapse and Recovery: Why You Should, and How You Can, Use Discrete-Time Survival Analysis," in the Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology (with J. Singer) (1993)
• "From Whether to When: New Methods for Studying Student Dropout and Teacher Attrition," in Review of Educational Research (with J.D. Singer) (1991)
• "Modeling the Days of Our Lives: Using Survival Analysis When Designing and Analyzing Longitudinal Studies of Duration and the Timing of Events," in Psychological Bulletin (with J.D. Singer) (1991)
• Who Will Teach? Policies That Matter (with R. Murnane, J. Singer, J. Kemple, and R. Olsen) (1991)
• By Design: Planning Better Research in Higher Education (with R.J. Light and J.D. Singer) (1990)
• "Some Results on Reliability for the Longitudinal Measurement of Change: Implications for the Design of Studies of Individual Growth," in Educational and Psychological Measurement (1989)
• "The Influence of Salaries and Opportunity Costs on Teachers' Career choices: Evidence from North Carolina," in Harvard Educational Review (with R. Murnane and J. Singer) (1989)
• "Questions and Answers in the Measurement of Change," in Review of Research in Education (ed by E.Z. Rothkopf) (1988)
• "Changes in Teacher Salaries During the 1970s: The Role of School District Demographics," in Economics of Education Review (with R. J. Murnane and J. D. Singer) (1987)
• "Understanding Correlates of Change by Modeling Individual Differences in Growth," in Psychometrika (with D.R. Rogosa) (1985)
• "It's About Time: Using Discrete-Time Survival Analysis To Study Duration and the Timing of Events," in the Journal of Educational Statistics (with J. Singer)

• Lawrence R. Klein Award, Monthly Labor Review, for the most outstanding contribution by non-Bureau of Labor Statistics authors(with Dr Richard Murnane and Dr. Kathryn Boudett) (2003)
• Professional and Scholarly Publishing Award, Honorable Mention in Mathematics and Statistics for Applied Longitudinal Data Analysis, Association of American Publishers (2003)
• Citation of Excellence, ANBAR Electronic Intelligence (jointly with Dr. Richard Murnane and Dr. Kathryn Boudett) (1997)
• Spencer Mentor Grant, The Spencer Foundation (with Dr. Judith D. Singer) (1994)
• Review of Research Award, American Educational Research Assocation (with Dr. Judith D. Singer) (1993)
• American Statistical Association Research Fellowship, National Center for Educational Statistics (1992)
• Raymond B. Cattell Early Career Award for Programmatic Research, American Educational Research Association (with Dr. Judith D. Singer) (1992)
• Palmer O. Johnson Memorial Award, American Educational Research Association (with Dr. Richard J. Murnane and Dr. Judith D. Singer) (1990)
• Open Venning Exhibition in Physics, Worcester College, Oxford (1967)

• Member, National Academy of Education (2004-present)
• Member, American Educational Research Association (1985-present)
• Editorial Board, Evaluation and Program Planning
• Editorial Board, Applied Psycholinguistics
• Editorial Board, Structural Equation Modeling: A Multidisciplinary Journal

• Bridging the Gap between Methodology and Substance: Advances in Study Design and Statistical Analysis for Educational Research
  

• Impact of Enrollment in a Career Academy on Participants' Life Outcomes, and the Mediation by Selected Facets of the Academy Curriculum, Spencer Foundation, (2010-2011)
  In a large-scale randomized experiment conducted by MDRC, intent-to-treat analyses of the impact of an offer of enrollment in a Career Academy on subsequent life outcomes have revealed effects that were heterogeneous among participants (Kemple, 2008). For instance, there was virtually no impact of the offer of career-academy enrollment for girls, but a statistically significant and positive impact for boys.However, among those to whom the offer of the career-academy treatment was randomized at the beginning of high-school, our preliminary analyses reveal considerable (and potentially endogenous) variation in whether participants remained enrolled in the academy from 10th through 12th grade. For instance, some participants accepted their random assignment into an academy but remained there for less than one year, while others complied with their assignment for the entire duration of their high-school careers. These temporal patterns of full and partial compliance complicate the estimation of the causal impact of treatment take-up.In this project, by re-analyzing the MDRC data with more sophisticated statistical methods, we propose to both account for the temporal differences in compliance and estimate more credibly the causal impact of the take-up of the career-academies treatment. We propose to capitalize on the principal stratification approach of Jin & Rubin (2009). Under this innovative approach, we will estimate the causal impact of the take-up of treatment on participants’ future earnings within principal strata defined on the patterns of compliance with assignment. Our preliminary analyses suggest that the earlier-detected overall effects of an academy offer may be due to substantial positive effects that were realized only for male students who were fully compliant, enrolling in the academy for the entire duration of their high school careers.
• Intended and Unintended Consequences of State High-Stakes Testing: Evidence from Standards-Based Reform in Massachusetts, U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, (2010-2013)
  Over the past two decades, state and federal policymakers have turned to standardized testing to focus attention on student achievement in the classroom and to hold schools, teachers, and students accountable for their performance. These tests may carry either high or low stakes for students, with more than half of all states requiring students to demonstrate competency on a high school exit exam before earning a diploma. Building on previous IES-funded research, we will use rigorous quasi-experimental methods to draw causal inferences about the effects of high-stakes testing. We seek to understand more completely the effects of standards-based reform, and high-stakes exit examinations in particular, on a wide range of student outcomes. The plan is to examine all students in the Massachusetts public school system from 2002 through 2009 and GED testing records for students from 1980 to 2009. Massachusetts is an interesting laboratory for inquiry because its educational system is one of the highest performing in the country. Since the state introduced standards-based testing in 1993, 8th grade students have improved remarkably on the NAEP and now rank first among states in mathematics and reading.

• S-077   Applied Longitudinal Data Analysis (Spring 2013)
• S-290   Quantitative Methods for Improving Causal Inference in Educational Research (Fall 2012)

• Curriculum Vitae (pdf)

• Research Methods

An article on Eliot Professor John Willett receiving the Morningstar Family Teaching Award

An interview with John Willett and Judy Singer about their latest book, and a related feature

A press release on the findings of Richard Murnane and John Willett about the growing importance of cognitive skills in wage determination